Bronze Age Collapse - 1177 the year Civ Died

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C-Mag
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Bronze Age Collapse - 1177 the year Civ Died

Post by C-Mag »

This guy expands on the traditional Sea People and Famine theory for the Bronze Age Collapse

He shows how our current system mimics the situation at the time of the Bronze Age Collapse. He's not a great speaker, but his stuff sounds pretty solid to me.
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Speaker to Animals
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Re: Bronze Age Collapse - 1177 the year Civ Died

Post by Speaker to Animals »

Sounds interesting, but I think a better analog to where we stand today is to compare us to the Native Americans as Europeans began to flood into North America.
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C-Mag
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Re: Bronze Age Collapse - 1177 the year Civ Died

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Speaker to Animals wrote:Sounds interesting, but I think a better analog to where we stand today is to compare us to the Native Americans as Europeans began to flood into North America.
His basic premise is that the Bronze Age Culture was a Global Community. They became reliant on each other, and that led to a somewhat fragile system. Then all these stressors started acting on Global Community. Climate Change, Famine, Drought, Earthquakes and Rebellions. Eventually the system broke down over the period of the century. He actually says that migrations of today fill the role of the Sea Peoples.
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Re: Bronze Age Collapse - 1177 the year Civ Died

Post by Okeefenokee »

C-Mag wrote:
Speaker to Animals wrote:Sounds interesting, but I think a better analog to where we stand today is to compare us to the Native Americans as Europeans began to flood into North America.
His basic premise is that the Bronze Age Culture was a Global Community. They became reliant on each other, and that led to a somewhat fragile system. Then all these stressors started acting on Global Community. Climate Change, Famine, Drought, Earthquakes and Rebellions. Eventually the system broke down over the period of the century. He actually says that migrations of today fill the role of the Sea Peoples.
I've been on this page for a while, but I don't think it would be as dire for Americans as it would be for others. When you lose your trading partners in a breakdown, you have to be able to fill the gaps. We are on solid ground as far as food production goes. Seasonal gaps would open up without food being shipped in from the south during winter, but no one would starve. What we'd need to bridge would be manufacturing, and there's nothing stopping us there except for cheaper foreign alternatives. It would take a little while to get production back up to speed, but we could do it. It's not knowledge or materials that we lack.

As far as risks faced while we are getting up to speed, I think everyone else would be just as concerned with issues at home. What if China invades while we're getting geared up? Well, China's gonna be invading Australia first to reestablish their coal supply. Similar cases for most others. It's the parts of the world that are dependent on food imports that would see real hardships. When those American grain shipments stop coming, many nations are going to go to fighting their neighbors.
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Alexander PhiAlipson
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Re: Bronze Age Collapse - 1177 the year Civ Died

Post by Alexander PhiAlipson »

Okeefenokee wrote:I've been on this page for a while, but I don't think it would be as dire for Americans as it would be for others. When you lose your trading partners in a breakdown, you have to be able to fill the gaps. We are on solid ground as far as food production goes. Seasonal gaps would open up without food being shipped in from the south during winter, but no one would starve. What we'd need to bridge would be manufacturing, and there's nothing stopping us there except for cheaper foreign alternatives. It would take a little while to get production back up to speed, but we could do it. It's not knowledge or materials that we lack.

As far as risks faced while we are getting up to speed, I think everyone else would be just as concerned with issues at home. What if China invades while we're getting geared up? Well, China's gonna be invading Australia first to reestablish their coal supply. Similar cases for most others. It's the parts of the world that are dependent on food imports that would see real hardships. When those American grain shipments stop coming, many nations are going to go to fighting their neighbors.
Yea, verily.
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Re: Bronze Age Collapse - 1177 the year Civ Died

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What if China invades while we're getting geared up? Well, China's gonna be invading Australia first
Implying they haven't already.
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C-Mag
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Re: Bronze Age Collapse - 1177 the year Civ Died

Post by C-Mag »

Alexander PhiAlipson wrote:
Okeefenokee wrote:I've been on this page for a while, but I don't think it would be as dire for Americans as it would be for others. When you lose your trading partners in a breakdown, you have to be able to fill the gaps. We are on solid ground as far as food production goes. Seasonal gaps would open up without food being shipped in from the south during winter, but no one would starve. What we'd need to bridge would be manufacturing, and there's nothing stopping us there except for cheaper foreign alternatives. It would take a little while to get production back up to speed, but we could do it. It's not knowledge or materials that we lack.

As far as risks faced while we are getting up to speed, I think everyone else would be just as concerned with issues at home. What if China invades while we're getting geared up? Well, China's gonna be invading Australia first to reestablish their coal supply. Similar cases for most others. It's the parts of the world that are dependent on food imports that would see real hardships. When those American grain shipments stop coming, many nations are going to go to fighting their neighbors.
Yea, verily.
+1 on 90% of that.
The big issue I have with the China boogeyman is that in 5,000 years they have never been able to export their power. They export cultural and technological stuff, but not their power. Maybe history will prove me wrong. If it does, Australia and SE Asia are the logical expansion.
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jbird4049
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Re: Bronze Age Collapse - 1177 the year Civ Died

Post by jbird4049 »

Okeefenokee wrote:
C-Mag wrote:
Speaker to Animals wrote:Sounds interesting, but I think a better analog to where we stand today is to compare us to the Native Americans as Europeans began to flood into North America.
His basic premise is that the Bronze Age Culture was a Global Community. They became reliant on each other, and that led to a somewhat fragile system. Then all these stressors started acting on Global Community. Climate Change, Famine, Drought, Earthquakes and Rebellions. Eventually the system broke down over the period of the century. He actually says that migrations of today fill the role of the Sea Peoples.
I've been on this page for a while, but I don't think it would be as dire for Americans as it would be for others. When you lose your trading partners in a breakdown, you have to be able to fill the gaps. We are on solid ground as far as food production goes. Seasonal gaps would open up without food being shipped in from the south during winter, but no one would starve. What we'd need to bridge would be manufacturing, and there's nothing stopping us there except for cheaper foreign alternatives. It would take a little while to get production back up to speed, but we could do it. It's not knowledge or materials that we lack.

As far as risks faced while we are getting up to speed, I think everyone else would be just as concerned with issues at home. What if China invades while we're getting geared up? Well, China's gonna be invading Australia first to reestablish their coal supply. Similar cases for most others. It's the parts of the world that are dependent on food imports that would see real hardships. When those American grain shipments stop coming, many nations are going to go to fighting their neighbors.


Coal is not that important. I would be worried about food shortages. Russia, India, and China. Large, powerful, nuclear armed, countries that have had at times trouble feeding themselves. Gimme your food, or your capital glows?
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Manwithnoname
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Re: Bronze Age Collapse - 1177 the year Civ Died

Post by Manwithnoname »

4000 kms of desert, one port, one road, and the coal is all down south. Oh, and all the countries and hundreds of millions of people they'd need to go through to get here.

Not going to happen. Far easier to buy it. We'll prostitute for a quick buck.
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TheReal_ND
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Re: Bronze Age Collapse - 1177 the year Civ Died

Post by TheReal_ND »

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Besides, dingos have a secret weapon..... drop bears