Poking the Bear Again

[Smitty-48]

not something that anyone cares about

ah, well, no need to discuss it further then

back to spring cleaning in the yard

ttfn

I’m referring to the motivation for war, not the concern over it. I can’t fathom how they’re justifying this standoff over a giant wheat field.

ah, I see

the key is to view it as a maritime theatre

the standoff is over maritime strategic lines of communications & Russian access to the high seas or lack there of

control of the Donbass is really only about securing the flanks in Crimea, the strategic naval base under siege

in terms of land operations it is a question of how much of a buffer zone does Russia need to secure Crimea

[Smitty-48]

in terms of the geostrategic motivations for encircling the Russians to effect regime change

I would submit that it is all part of the decline & fall of the Neoliberal empire

the empire requires expansion, new markets to exploit, Russia is one of the largest not yet under control

Putin & the Siloviki are a bulwark against Neoliberal exploitation, so the Neoliberals are out to bring them down

thus the trajectory is towards a tense & precarious New Cold War standoff

then the ultimate question becomes will the Kremlin go down easy, or will they come out swinging ?

[Smitty-48]

this is where I surmise that Turkey & Poland are the wild cards

the Turks & Poles are also withdrawing from the Neoliberal order into a nationalistic quasi fascistic paradigm

they are not under the control of Washington, London, Paris nor Berlin

they have their own territorial confrontations with the Russians in the Baltic & South Caucasus

yet at the same time they are two of the most powerful NATO members, with most of the troops in theatre

so this is where the Trace in Ukraine is being crossed aggressively on the flanks, in Belarus & Armenia

the Russians for example intervened in Syria because of Turkey

Syria is the Russian foothold on the far side of the Bosporus

Poland is trying overthrow Lukashenka in Minsk, this is why 1st Guards Tank Army is poised to invade

so the reality is that the Kremlin's fears have come true, NATO is in fact attacking Russia over the Article V line

thus why the French & Germans are trying to call it off, but they simply don't have the influence to do it

when you have Azerbaijan attacking Armenia with a drone blitzkrieg

that is NATO fighting Russia in the South Caucasus already, proxy war is war

[Xenophon]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... today.html

Russia announces snap live-fire drills in the Black Sea today as first US warship is expected to arrive and pro-Kremlin mouthpiece warns war is 'inevitable' amid soaring tensions on Ukraine border

[Smitty-48]

the build up of Russian forces in Western & Southern Districts is now reportedly 2 Armies & 2 Airborne Divisions

20th Guards Army

8th Combined Arms Army

76th Guards Airborne Air Assault Division

7th Guards Air Assault Mountain Division

83,000 troops so far

[SuburbanFarmer]

Seems excessive. Also a great time for an idle cruise through the area.

[Smitty-48]

Seems excessive.

escalation dominance

not for exercise, it's enough troops & equipment to fight the war for real tomorrow morning if they have to

it also demonstrates how fast they can move

they went from barracks to 83,000 troops on the border in no time flat

they only have 350,000 active troops, so moving troops quickly to a crisis area is a must

thus they are snap mobilization experts, it would take NATO much longer to get that many troops into position

it's not like NATO where you take six weeks to deploy into theatre

in Russia, the alarm goes off in the barracks, you grab your rifle, run to your vehicle, and move out

[Smitty-48]

reports are that the Russians are now up to 90,000 troops deployed, 50,000 in Krasnodar, 40,000 in Crimea

and that field hospitals have been deployed so they are prepared to take casualties

GPS is now being jammed in eastern Ukraine

Iskander-M tactical ballistic missiles have been reportedly been deployed as well

[Martin Hash]

Why can’t Biden be lucky like Trump? Where’s Hanny to explain this?

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Why can’t Biden be lucky like Trump? Where’s Hanny to explain this?

You explained it perfectly. Trump gave away endless carrots.

It is good short term policy - mollify your adversaries.