Historical Arguments and Debates

[Speaker to Animals]

I'd like to ask folks probabilities on some questions.

Percentage Chance
Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life Exists: __%
Intelligent ET has Interstellar capabilities: __%
Intelligent ET has visited Earth: __%

No idea
No idea
No idea

Damn you Doc, I was counting on you to put some numbers on this. You're the SciFi Bookworm.
Don't be weak, throw some numbers out.

Too many unknown variables.

We do not even know exactly how life originates, so that is a huge unknown in the beginning of the chain of probabilities that changes everything. It may be the probability of intelligent life evolving in some biosphere is fair, and all the subsequent things near 1.0. Bit if the probability of a biosphere coming into existence is near zero..

[heydaralon]

I'd like to ask folks probabilities on some questions.

Percentage Chance
Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life Exists: __%
Intelligent ET has Interstellar capabilities: __%
Intelligent ET has visited Earth: __%

No idea
No idea
No idea

Damn you Doc, I was counting on you to put some numbers on this. You're the SciFi Bookworm.
Don't be weak, throw some numbers out.

The percentage that extraterrestrial life exists is 100%. We know this because Neil DeGrasse Tyson is not from this planet. He is far too smart to be a dumb Earthling like the rest of us. The guy has pointed out that borders are artificial lines that separate humans from one another, and that we should run a hyper rational society that isn't based on religion. Talk about an alien supercomputer genius!

Tyson has also given us some super-human tech. He helped design some amazing spaceships and probes. Like, he actually engineered them and designed the ships himself. Ask Speaker about some of Tyson's spaceships when you get a chance.

[Fife]

I'd like to ask folks probabilities on some questions.

Percentage Chance
Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life Exists: __%
Intelligent ET has Interstellar capabilities: __%
Intelligent ET has visited Earth: __%

Is the universe infinite? I'm not sure; but if it is, it looks like there's a good chance that an exact copy of you yourself exist as a intelligent star-hopping ET somewhere right now. There would also be at least one other duplicate Carlus reading this post right now somewhere else.

If the universe is truly infinite, the first two blanks approach 100. If the universe isn't infinite, what's on the outside?

What's weird is that even if the universe is infinite, the near-certain probability of a duplicate Carlus doesn't really say anything about ET visiting our particular version of Terra Firma.



http://www.rudyrucker.com/infinityandthemind/



To me, it's a matter of perspective. Space is freaking big, no matter what.

[heydaralon]

I'd like to ask folks probabilities on some questions.

Percentage Chance
Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life Exists: __%
Intelligent ET has Interstellar capabilities: __%
Intelligent ET has visited Earth: __%

Is the universe infinite? I'm not sure; but if it is, it looks like there's a good chance that an exact copy of you yourself exist as a intelligent star-hopping ET somewhere right now. There would also be at least one other duplicate Carlus reading this post right now somewhere else.

If the universe is truly infinite, the first two blanks approach 100. If the universe isn't infinite, what's on the outside?

What's weird is that even if the universe is infinite, the near-certain probability of a duplicate Carlus doesn't really say anything about ET visiting our particular version of Terra Firma.



http://www.rudyrucker.com/infinityandthemind/



To me, it's a matter of perspective. Space is freaking big, no matter what.

Kind of sounds a bit like the Nietzsche eternal recurrence thing

[C-Mag]

I'd like to ask folks probabilities on some questions.

Percentage Chance
Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life Exists: __%
Intelligent ET has Interstellar capabilities: __%
Intelligent ET has visited Earth: __%

Is the universe infinite? I'm not sure; but if it is, it looks like there's a good chance that an exact copy of you yourself exist as a intelligent star-hopping ET somewhere right now. There would also be at least one other duplicate Carlus reading this post right now somewhere else.

If the universe is truly infinite, the first two blanks approach 100. If the universe isn't infinite, what's on the outside?

What's weird is that even if the universe is infinite, the near-certain probability of a duplicate Carlus doesn't really say anything about ET visiting our particular version of Terra Firma.

See, that's impossible. The universe can handle multiple Kirks, but even one more Carlus and it would be destroyed.



So, Fife, through a number on this particular Terra Firma for visitation.

[Fife]

So, Fife, through a number on this particular Terra Firma for visitation.

I'd like to be able to, but that Fermi Paradox is a bastard.

What sort of evidence would help us determine if we've been visited by intelligent ET life? I've no doubt that we'll expand the idea of what kind of evidence we can turn up, but as for now I'm stumped.

[Speaker to Animals]

I'd like to ask folks probabilities on some questions.

Percentage Chance
Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life Exists: __%
Intelligent ET has Interstellar capabilities: __%
Intelligent ET has visited Earth: __%

Is the universe infinite? I'm not sure; but if it is, it looks like there's a good chance that an exact copy of you yourself exist as a intelligent star-hopping ET somewhere right now. There would also be at least one other duplicate Carlus reading this post right now somewhere else.

If the universe is truly infinite, the first two blanks approach 100. If the universe isn't infinite, what's on the outside?

What's weird is that even if the universe is infinite, the near-certain probability of a duplicate Carlus doesn't really say anything about ET visiting our particular version of Terra Firma.



http://www.rudyrucker.com/infinityandthemind/



To me, it's a matter of perspective. Space is freaking big, no matter what.

Except it is not infinite.

[Fife]

Except it is not infinite.

OK, we can still approximate the math. How many Hubble volumes are there in the universe?

[Speaker to Animals]

Except it is not infinite.

OK, we can still approximate the math. How many Hubble volumes are there in the universe?

The actual size is irrelevant to the argument you made. You tried to apply the Zero-One law as an absolute, but that only works mathematically in infinite sequences.

The massive size of the universe serves as an inflationary effect to probabilities, but if the initial probabilities are near-zero, then that effect does not amount to much.

I think it applies better to something like time travel (if possible then there must be time travelers or we go extinct before we do it). It also applies well when you make generous assumptions about the probability that life emerges on some world, and then intelligent life evolves with some way to manipulate objects in order to form technological societies. If you assume those probabilities are very high, then you can inferior from the vastness of the universe that civilizations abound.

But those are two really big assumptions that we cannot really support *or* discount objections to.

[Fife]

That was my whole point. Infinity allows for reasonable inferences. If it's all bounded, then we still searching for the beginning of evidence. And I mean the very beginning.